(NewsNation) — The “October surprise” is a “huge myth” in American politics, in response to the historian who devised the “Keys to the White House” components.
Allan Lichtman, a historian and American College professor, has appropriately predicted almost each presidential race since 1984 utilizing a components of 13 true-or-false questions.
“My system is based upon the fundamental forces that drive elections. … It’s governing, not campaigning, that counts,” Lichtman stated on NewsNation’s “CUOMO.” “I’ve always made my predictions before then (October) and I never change them.”
Frank Luntz, a famend pollster and communications advisor, stated polling this yr just isn’t indicative of nearly something.
Lichtman is “brilliant” and “he’s proven it through decades of success,” Luntz stated.
He beforehand informed “NewsNation Live” that “cataclysmic events” have had a blended however essential impact on the keys assessing the White Home get together’s energy and efficiency. If six keys go towards the White Home get together, his system predicts a loss, he defined.
These indicators: Social gathering mandate, get together contest, incumbency, third get together, short-term financial system, long-term financial system, coverage change, social unrest, scandal, overseas/army coverage failure, overseas/army coverage success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.
Looking forward to November, eight of the keys favor Vice President Harris, whereas three don’t, in response to Lichtman.
The ultimate two keys — overseas coverage success and failure — might go both means however gained’t sway the ultimate final result, he predicted.
NewsNation is owned by Nexstar Media Wire, which additionally owns The Hill.
Katie Smith contributed to this report.
