CNN polling guru Harry Enten stated he believes a sweep of the primary battleground states within the presidential election is “more likely than not,” at the same time as polls present all seven of the massive swing states virtually even between Vice President Harris and former President Trump.
Enten, who’s CNN’s senior political information reporter, stated in section on the community on Thursday that his electoral mannequin provides a 60 p.c probability that the winner of the election receives at the very least 300 electoral votes.
“So for all the talk that we’ve had about this election being historically close, which it is, chances are the winner will still actually score a relative blowout in the Electoral College,” Enten stated.
Polls have persistently positioned the race as neck and neck, with neither candidate main in any of the seven swing states in The Hill/Determination Desk HQ polling common by greater than 2 factors. If Harris and Trump break up the states with the profitable candidate taking three or 4, they might doubtless solely simply get above the 270 electoral votes wanted to clinch victory.
But when they have been to win most or the entire states, they might get above 300 votes, a extra comfy win, comparatively talking.
Enten stated the common polling error since 1972 in the important thing swing states has been 3.4 factors, and if that occurs this 12 months, it might trigger one candidate to brush all seven.
He famous that previous elections have proven one candidate outperforming expectations in most states, suggesting states are more likely to broadly vote extra Democratic or Republican throughout the board.
He stated 92 p.c of states’ polling averages underestimated then-President Obama in 2012, 83 p.c underestimated Trump in 2016 and 100% underestimated Trump in 2020.
“So this time around, don’t be surprised if the swing state polls, when they underestimate one candidate, they underestimate all of them in the states. And that would lead to a relative Electoral College blowout, with one of the candidates winning at least 300 electoral votes,” Enten stated.
Presidential elections have typically been very shut races lately, so the race remains to be more likely to be shut even when one candidate carries a lot of the swing states. In 2020, for instance, President Biden gained six of the seven battlegrounds which are thought-about more likely to determine the election this 12 months, however he solely carried just a few of them by just a few tens of 1000’s of votes, placing him excessive.
A presidential candidate has not gained in a real landslide since 1988, when George H.W. Bush gained greater than 400 electoral votes in his victory.
