An incumbent Home Democrat from Connecticut is locked in a decent race for reelection towards her Republican challenger, a brand new ballot reveals.
The survey, launched Tuesday from Emerson Faculty Polling/WTNH/WCTX/The Hill, discovered Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) main Republican George Logan by 3 factors — 49 p.c to 46 p.c. Roughly 1 p.c stated they’d assist another person, whereas 5 p.c had been undecided.
Connecticut is likely one of the most solidly Democratic-leaning states within the nation, however the state’s fifth Congressional District is far more aggressive than the opposite districts. Hayes narrowly defeated Logan by lower than 1 level in 2022, successful her third time period in workplace, however the district has not elected a Republican to the Home in 20 years.
Spencer Kimball, the manager director of Emerson polling, famous in a launch that the ballot confirmed a “stark” gender divide, with Hayes main amongst girls by 15 factors and Logan main amongst males by 10 factors.
Each candidates are considered decently favorably by respondents, although Logan has a slight benefit in web favorability. Hayes is considered favorably by 52 p.c and unfavorably by 43 p.c, whereas Logan is considered favorably by 49 p.c and unfavorably by 33 p.c, in line with the ballot.
Hayes, nonetheless, has a bonus in identify recognition, with 18 p.c saying they aren’t acquainted with Logan in comparison with simply 6 p.c who stated the identical in regards to the incumbent.
The candidates are roughly even within the assist they obtain from their very own get together, however Logan leads amongst independents by 4 factors, 49 p.c to 45 p.c, the info reveals.
The ballot additionally discovered the outcomes for the presidential contest and the state’s Senate race are shut. Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 1 level, whereas Sen. Chris Murphy (D) leads Republican Matt Corey by 6 factors.
Each Harris and Murphy are more likely to simply win within the state general, a Democratic stronghold.
The race should still be an uphill battle for Republicans. The Hill/Determination Desk HQ’s forecast mannequin charges the race as “likely Democrat,” whereas Cook dinner Political Report charges the race as “lean Democrat.”
The ballot was carried out from Oct. Sept. 11 amongst 725 seemingly voters. The credibility interval, which has similarities to margin of error, was 3.6 share factors.
