Democrats are battling to flip management of the Home on the polls subsequent week, eyeing good points in battleground districts from coast to coast in an effort to win again the Speaker’s gavel after two years within the minority wilderness.
The struggle for management of the decrease chamber stays neck and neck, and marketing campaign handicappers say the gavel continues to be up for grabs with simply eight days left earlier than Election Day. Each events concede the competition might tip both approach.
Democrats bought an enormous enhance over the summer season, when Vice President Harris changed President Biden on the prime of the ticket, bringing a surge in fundraising, volunteerism and common enthusiasm amongst base voters who had been deflated by Biden’s dismal approval rankings.
Occasion leaders are additionally animated by the very fact 18 incumbent Republicans characterize districts received by Biden in 2020, and plenty of of them are susceptible. Certainly, there are 14 Republican incumbents in “toss-up” races, representing probably the most aggressive contests within the nation, in keeping with the most recent tally from the Prepare dinner Political Report, and one other is within the “lean Democrat” column.
However Democrats misplaced a little bit of floor in the course of the redistricting course of, which is predicted to internet the Republicans one extra seat. And Democrats have 11 “toss-up” races to defend themselves, together with three contests the place Democratic retirements have put the seats in play. Nonetheless, Democratic candidates have vastly outraised their GOP opponents in races throughout the nation, and get together leaders are voicing confidence they’ll seize management of the Home subsequent yr.
Listed here are seven seats the place Democrats are most assured they will decide off sitting GOP lawmakers of their quest for the Home majority.
New York-22: Brandon Williams
Rep. Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.), a first-term conservative, is among the many most susceptible GOP incumbents this cycle. Though he swept into workplace in 2022 on New York’s crimson wave, his margin was just one proportion level — roughly 2,600 votes — and Biden received the district by roughly 7 factors two years earlier.
Since then, state redistricting modifications have shifted the twenty second District even additional towards the Democrats — Biden’s margin within the new district would have been 11.4 factors — and handicappers on the Prepare dinner Political Report have the race “leaning” in favor of Williams’s Democratic challenger, John Mannion, a reasonable state senator.
Democratic marketing campaign operatives say that shift — mixed with Williams’s conservative coverage report, particularly on abortion — make the seat ripe for flipping subsequent week.
“Unlike some of the other vulnerable Republicans in New York — who are desperately trying to hide their anti-abortion extremism in a desperate attempt to sound moderate — he will openly run as a far-right conservative,” a Democratic strategist conversant in Home races stated. “He’s unapologetic about it.”
The fundraising numbers additionally favor the Democrats. Whereas outdoors teams have spent $4.2 million on behalf of Williams, they’ve spent $6.6 million favoring Mannion, in keeping with OpenSecrets.
Nebraska-2: Don Bacon
Democrats have been attempting unsuccessfully for years to choose off Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) in a reasonable district centered round Omaha. This yr, they suppose they’ve their greatest shot to this point.
Not solely did Biden carry the district by 6.3 proportion factors in 2020, however unbiased polling reveals that Tony Vargas, the Democratic state senator difficult Bacon, is performing higher than he did two years in the past, when he misplaced to the incumbent Republican by roughly 6,000 votes. On this yr’s rematch, the analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan handicapper primarily based on the College of Virginia, have rated the race “lean Democrat.”
On prime of that, the Harris marketing campaign has targeted squarely on the district within the remaining weeks of the race, sending vice presidential candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and his spouse to stump within the area. That’s as a result of Nebraska is one in all solely two states, together with Maine, to award presidential electoral votes by congressional district — in distinction to the winner-take-all system adopted by each different state.
Home political operatives say the extra campaigning and spending on the presidential degree marks a break from the 2016 and 2020 cycles — when Democratic contenders for the White Home largely ignored the district — and can profit Vargas downballot.
“This is the year,” the strategist stated. “Unlike other years where many didn’t think the presidential race would come down to maybe one electoral vote, I think everyone realizes it’s a possibility and is acting accordingly. And as a consequence of that, you’re seeing a lot of Dem investments out there.”
Election handicappers say the ascension of Harris to the highest of the ticket can also be an element, because it’s more likely to enhance turnout of Black and different minority voters in Omaha.
Exterior spending has poured in to attempt to enhance the Republican, with $10.7 million spent to both promote Bacon or oppose Vargas, in keeping with OpenSecrets. On the opposite aspect, $6.8 million has been spent to assist Vargas or oppose Bacon.
New York-4: Anthony D’Esposito
Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is one other of the first-term New York Republicans on the prime of the Democrats’ goal record. Not solely did Biden win the district by a whopping 14.5 proportion factors in 2020, however D’Esposito has discovered himself embroiled in a late-campaign scandal after The New York Occasions reported in September he had an affair with a lady whereas engaged to his longtime fiancee, after which put the mistress on his congressional payroll.
Such episodes will not be unparalleled on Capitol Hill. However in a area of New York the place many citizens are nonetheless humiliated by the quite a few ethics and authorized troubles surrounding former GOP Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from Congress final yr, Democrats suppose the scandal will spark a voter backlash that can solely assist propel D’Esposito’s challenger, Laura Gillen, into Congress.
“It is a factor,” the strategist stated. “On Long Island, there is Santos scandal fatigue, and now D’Esposito is being dogged by his own scandals.”
The race is a rematch of the 2022 contest, when D’Esposito defeated Gillen, an lawyer and former city supervisor, by virtually 4 proportion factors. This time round, she’ll have Harris on the prime of the ticket — a dynamic that’s anticipated to extend turnout amongst Black and different minority voters on Lengthy Island to the good thing about Democrats. Gillen can also be higher funded this cycle.
Democrats have flooded the district with outdoors spending, pouring $13 million into efforts opposing D’Esposito or supporting Gillen, in keeping with OpenSecrets. Republicans have spent greater than $5.7 million to oppose Gillen or enhance the Republican congressman.
Oregon-5: Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the primary GOP girl to characterize Oregon within the Home, has spent her two years on Capitol Hill preventing to construct a repute as a reasonable voice throughout the closely conservative GOP convention. Democrats, nonetheless, see her as notably susceptible on a difficulty of outsize prominence this cycle: abortion, the place she’s wavered between vows to oppose any bans on federal funding for the process, and voting to do exactly that when laws hit the ground.
Democrats are hoping that observe report will repel voters in Oregon’s fifth District, which incorporates the suburbs of each Portland and Salem, whereas boosting the Democratic challenger, Janelle Bynum, an Oregon state Home member.
Fueling their optimism, Biden received the district in 2020 by 8.9 factors. Fueling it additional, 2024 is the primary presidential cycle for the reason that conservative Supreme Courtroom overturned Roe v. Wade. With that in thoughts, Democratic operatives preserve the abortion problem will overwhelm the GOP efforts to tie Democrats, together with Bynum, to Portland’s controversial liberal insurance policies associated to crime and immigration.
“This district is overwhelmingly, without question, pro-choice. And it is absolutely a huge deal in that part of the country — unequivocally so,” the strategist stated. “You cannot get elected in Oregon unless you’re pro-choice. Which is why Chavez-DeRemer is trying so, so, so, so hard to cover up her anti-abortion views and her anti-abortion history and her anti-abortion votes.”
Exterior spending is comparatively even within the race, with $10.8 million spent to assist Bynum or oppose Chavez-DeRemer, and $10.4 million to assist the Republican or oppose Bynum, in keeping with OpenSecrets.
California-13: John Duarte
To know that first-term Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) is likely one of the most susceptible members of the Home GOP within the cycle, look again to the 2022 election, which he received by simply 564 votes.
Democrats consider Duarte will fare worse in a presidential yr, notably in a district the place Biden had an almost 11-point edge with voters in 2020.
Democrats have the benefit in outdoors spending, with $11.4 million spent to oppose Duarte or assist Democratic nominee Adam Grey, and $8.3 million spent to assist Duarte or oppose Grey, in keeping with OpenSecrets.
Duarte has struck one of the reasonable tones within the Home GOP on abortion, even saying he’s “pro-choice” regardless of not supporting codifying protections for abortion. However his Democratic opponent, a former member of the California State Meeting, has closely attacked Duarte on abortion rights.
One other main theme from Democrats is that within the agricultural district, Duarte has nothing to indicate on immigration reform — a difficulty that resonates loudly in a area the place migrant employees are an important a part of the financial system.
Democrats additionally suppose the chaotic Home GOP majority, which endured two drawn-out battles for Speaker and quite a few intraparty fights, helped Duarte from getting significant wins.
Arizona-1: David Schweikert
Democrats have lengthy been hoping to seize Rep. David Schweikert’s (R-Ariz.) district that features the Phoenix suburb of Scottsdale, which has been trending blue. Biden received the district by 1.5 proportion factors in 2020.
This yr may be the one the place it catches as much as the unapologetically conservative Schweikert, who was first elected to Congress as a part of the 2010 Tea Occasion wave.
Exterior spending on the Democratic aspect has topped $11.6 million to both oppose Schweikert or assist his Democratic challenger, Amish Shah, in comparison with greater than $9.6 million to assist the Republican or oppose Shah, in keeping with OpenSecrets.
Democrats hope the additional efforts being put into Arizona as a result of aggressive open Senate seat, and the very fact it’s a swing state, will even make a distinction within the Home race, working up the rating to assist Shah, a doctor and former state consultant.
“The district is trending blue and fast growing with a lot of new residents,” the strategist stated. “And eventually, all these new folks who are coming in who are blue-leaning are realizing, ‘Wait a minute, I don’t really want to vote for an anti-choice Republican who’s been there 14 years.'”
California-27: Mike Garcia
Second-term Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) represents a district north of Los Angeles that swung for Biden by 12.4 factors in 2020, making him a main goal for Democrats.
His Democratic challenger, George Whitesides, was the primary CEO of Virgin Galactic and was chief of employees of NASA in the course of the Obama administration — a business-friendly resume that would blunt among the GOP assaults on Biden and Democrats because the drivers of inflation.
The broader political surroundings throughout the Golden State might additionally work to Whitesides’s favor. As a result of California is solidly Democratic statewide, a lot of the grassroots and donor enthusiasm has been directed on the handful of aggressive congressional races, the Democratic strategist stated.
“There are no other competitive races other than these congressional seats,” the strategist stated. “[Democratic Senate candidate Adam] Schiff doesn’t have a competitive seat. It’s California, it’s going to go Harris. Volunteers are looking at their local House race to engage, because that’s where the action is right now.”
Republicans have put about $11 million into outdoors spending to assist Garcia or tear down Whitesides, whereas outdoors Democratic teams have spent $10.5 million to assist the challenger or oppose Garcia, in keeping with OpenSecrets.
