Mark McKinnon, a longtime GOP political adviser, says he thinks Vice President Harris will win the election, now simply 18 days away.
“I’m going to make a bold prediction here because I just don’t give a s‑‑‑ if I’m wrong, even if this lives on the internet forever,” McKinnon wrote in an essay printed Friday by Self-importance Truthful. “Kamala Harris is going to win. Maybe easily.”
McKinnon, who labored for President George W. Bush, cited what he considered as a key distinction between supporters of Harris and former President Trump.
“Here’s why I say it’s Harris’s to lose. Trump voters may be committed, but Harris voters are excited and enthusiastic. In August, the Harris–Tim Walz ticket enjoyed an eight-point lead when it came to voter enthusiasm,” he wrote, referencing an article about voter enthusiasm.
Final month, a USA As we speak/Suffolk College ballot revealed that pleasure amongst Harris voters surged previous pleasure amongst Trump voters, 68 % to 60 %. Gallup additionally highlighted voter enthusiasm earlier this yr, saying “the party with the higher net-enthusiasm score at the end of a presidential campaign usually sees their candidate win.”
McKinnon famous a distinction between the Democratic and Republican events’ employees on the bottom, too.
“And there is a big difference in the ground game. Democrats are largely paying their field workers, while Republicans are mostly relying on volunteers,” he wrote within the piece. “These are factors not being picked up on the radar of the head-to-head polling.”
Reporting from The New York Instances earlier this month famous Harris has run an operation typical to how candidates have for years: deploying paid workers members to arrange nationwide.
Trump, alternatively, has centered on “less frequent voters” and relied on “well-funded but inexperienced outside groups,” based on the outlet.
McKinnon additionally invoked Venture 2025, a conservative sport plan for the following Republican presidency recognized for its controversial coverage proposals written by a number of Trump loyalists. Democrats have tried to tie the blueprint to the GOP presidential nominee and his allies, although Trump has sought to distance himself from it, saying he has “nothing to do with it.”
Lastly, the previous Republican adviser wrote, there is a “gender gap” between the 2 candidates, including that girls would be the ones to assist Harris win.
“Yes, Trump has an advantage with men. But I believe that in the end, the Harris gender gap with women will shatter all previous records and be determinative,” he mentioned.
An Emerson School survey launched Friday discovered the previous president main the vice chairman amongst males, 56 % to 42 %. Harris, nonetheless, outpaced her GOP rival amongst ladies, 55 % to 41 %.
General, the ballot confirmed the Democratic nominee with a 1-point lead over Trump, 49 % to 48 %, nationally. The Hill/Choice Desk HQ’s polling index additionally exhibits a decent race, however Harris has a barely wider, 2.5-point lead — 49.7 % to 47.2 %.
“But when it all comes out in the wash, I think women are going to do the work and save our a– and our democracy,” McKinnon continued. “They’ve been doing it for centuries, so it shouldn’t be a surprise.”
