Home Republicans can have zero room for error within the 119th Congress — actually.
Rep. John Duarte (R) conceded to Democrat Adam Grey in California’s thirteenth Congressional District Tuesday evening — the ultimate uncalled Home race of the 2024 cycle — solidifying the GOP’s 220-215 majority within the decrease chamber.
That slim edge is already one of many closest in historical past. And it’s set to slender much more — and rapidly — placing Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and his management group in a bind as they chart lofty objectives for the following two years, when the GOP can have management of all levers of energy in Washington.
“Do the math,” Johnson advised reporters Wednesday morning. “We have nothing to spare.”
With former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) resigning and ruling out returning to Congress after his failed bid for legal professional normal, Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) set to resign on Jan. 20 to change into nationwide safety adviser, and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) anticipated to depart the chamber to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, the GOP majority will shrink to 217-215 early subsequent 12 months. The primary particular elections are set to happen in April.
That leaves a zero-vote margin for the Republican convention on party-line votes, assuming full attendance, making delayed flights and sicknesses vital to legislative enterprise. If subsequent 12 months, for instance, all Home Democrats vote towards a GOP-led measure and one Republican breaks from the celebration and votes with Democrats, the ultimate tally could be 216-216 — sinking the GOP effort, since a tie loses within the decrease chamber.
That actuality will spell hassle for Johnson and his deputies as they appear to usher via President-elect Trump’s high priorities within the first 100 days of the 119th Congress, with the slim majority making every Republican lawmaker a make-or-break vote on high-profile measures.
The Speaker is conscious of the problem he faces, however is expressing confidence within the group’s capacity to work via these.
“Just like we do every day here, we’ve developed an expertise in that,” he added. “We know how to work a small majority.”
The convention’s rabble-rousers and hardline conservatives — together with these within the Home Freedom Caucus — have been a thorn within the facet of management for the previous two years, blocking procedural votes as a method to protest insurance policies, torpedoing laws on the ground that they don’t help, and extracting concessions from Johnson in trade for his or her help on varied efforts.
These methods, in lots of cases, have been profitable due to the Home GOP’s present slender majority. Republicans management 220 seats within the chamber proper now, with Democrats trailing at 213, permitting the GOP convention solely three defections on any party-line vote. Two seats are presently vacant.
These on the right-flank can have a better time disrupting the established order subsequent 12 months — and a few are already vowing to take action.
“If it’s morally correct, if it’s something that I really believe in,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) mentioned on CNN when requested if he’s prepared to carry up enterprise within the Home subsequent 12 months. “If it’s, you know, if we continue down this path of economic destruction, spending our great grandchildren’s money, yes, I will, and I have. And we’ll continue on that path until we regain some sanity.”
Different Republicans, nevertheless, are pumping the brakes on the concept of chaos over the following two years, contending that the convention will comply with Trump’s lead on varied legislative undertakings. Even those that are typically the rabble-rousers say will probably be easy crusing with Trump on the helm.
“What we’re going to have under Trump is leadership from the Executive Branch, that is in alignment with, quite frankly, what the Freedom Caucus would want to achieve,” Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), a member of the conservative group, advised The Hill. “And so I think you’re less likely to see a whole lot of, quote, unquote, bucking the system because Trump is very much in line, we’re in sync on most issues.”
However, he added, “anytime you have a small majority, any caucus or group has, at least in that moment, there’s power in numbers.”
“There were a lot of them that might have been important last time, but will vote yes if Trump tells them to,” mentioned Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a member who regularly breaks from the celebration on laws.
Democrats, for his or her half, see the ultra-thin margin as a possible instrument they might make the most of whereas serving within the minority — and they’re strongly emphasizing attendance.
“It’s important for every member to come to work and to do their job. That’s what we’re telling our caucus,” Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) mentioned throughout a press convention on Wednesday.
“Their attendance is incredibly important, and the work that we do here is important, and pushing back against Republican overreach is potentially something that we have to do next year,” he continued. “And in order to do that, we’re going to need them coming” to Washington.
The primary particular elections to interchange the GOP’s vacancies — that are in ruby-red districts — usually are not set to happen till April, leaving Republicans with their slimmest majority till then. Johnson mentioned the convention would handle the sting they’re dealt, and predicted they’d be again to capability in late spring.
“We’ll deal with it, with a one seat majority, just like we will when we fill those seats, three or four, whatever the final number is, we’ll get those filled by, I think, late spring, and we will proceed,” Johnson mentioned.
Whereas Republicans are expressing optimism about legislating within the slim majority, some minefields are forward because the celebration, led by Trump, eyes an formidable agenda for the 119th Congress — headlined by tax reform.
A number of provisions of the 2017 tax package deal Trump signed into legislation — dubbed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) — are set to run out on the finish of 2025, and GOP lawmakers wish to lengthen lots of the common packages.
Johnson has mentioned he desires to sort out tax reform within the first 100 days utilizing funds reconciliation, a wonky, fast-track course of events use once they have full management in Washington. However that may require unanimity from Home Republicans and the plan is already going through roadblocks.
A handful of lawmakers from higher-tax blue states, together with New York and California, are as soon as once more pushing for the state and native tax (SALT) deduction cap to be lifted or elevated, vowing to oppose any laws that doesn’t reply that demand.
If sufficient Republicans on the SALT Caucus be part of that effort, the tax package deal may falter — a dynamic that the group is nicely conscious of.
“I’ve been very clear: I won’t support a tax bill that does not lift the cap on SALT,” Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) advised The Hill final week. “Given the margins in the House, this is something that there’s gonna have to be a good-faith negotiation on.”
Regardless of the politically various caucus, Republicans are barreling into the brand new 12 months with excessive hopes of ticking objects off their prolonged to-do listing in a drama-free style, particularly with Trump main the best way.
“It’s impossible to have a slimmer majority, which creates serious challenges,” mentioned Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), a high appropriator. “But the reason I’m optimistic is what we have now is Trump as president. And I think once we have an agreement as to how to move forward… folks who are like, for example, who would consider voting against the rule, are going to have to think twice because we have Trump in the White House.”
Emily Brooks contributed.
