Rep. Dave Schweikert (R-Ariz.) is preventing for his political life in a key Arizona swing district, in what observers say will doubtless be essentially the most aggressive race of his years-long profession.
Schweikert, who has represented elements of Phoenix and Scottsdale for over a decade, is working towards Democrat Amish Shah as he appears to be like to safe his eighth time period representing a district that has come to be seen as an necessary bellwether because of the space’s excessive share of college-educated suburban voters.
After narrowly successful reelection in 2022, Schweikert is seeking to harness power from having former President Trump on the high of the ticket this go-round. However some political observers level to an abortion poll measure, controversy surrounding Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake and the overall altering dynamics of the district as components that would work towards the incumbent.
“It’s a district that has been Republican, but always we’ve looked at it as a district that’s moving into that Democratic category, highly competitive,” mentioned Chuck Coughlin, an Arizona-based political strategist, noting that Shah may benefit from excessive youth turnout due to the presidential race.
Schweikert just lately switched this cycle from Arizona’s sixth Congressional District to Arizona’s 1st Congressional District. The extremely educated, prosperous district consists of Cave Creek, Scottsdale and Fountain Hills. However pockets of it are blue-leaning they usually might present a gap for Shah to make his mark.
“His district has changed a bit, and this is a presidential cycle, which are two things that might work against him, but what does work for him is he has a very good reputation, and he is a long-time incumbent, and he’s a Republican and a district that is still nominally Republican and Trump is on the ballot,” mentioned Stan Barnes, a former Republican state senator who’s now a political guide in Arizona.
Public polling of the race, which The Prepare dinner Political Report charges as a “toss up,” has been sparse.
The Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee in mid-August launched a ballot that discovered the candidates have been tied at 48 p.c, whereas 4 p.c have been undecided. The Home Majority PAC, which is aligned with Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), launched a ballot in mid-September that had Shah up by 1 level, 48 p.c to 47 p.c. The Hill/Determination Desk HQ’s newest forecast offers Schweikert a 70 p.c likelihood of successful.
Strategists mentioned that Shah, who mentioned he has knocked on over 22,000 doorways, must increase his identify identification within the district and cautioned the doctor has by no means run “a highly competitive big race like this.”
“Dr. Shaw has a very good reputation for knocking on doors and being very friendly, and has a good reputation with the electorate out there, but he’s not really well known, and so he’s gotta work hard, raise a lot of money, gotta do a media campaign to introduce himself,” Coughlin mentioned.
Each the Nationwide Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Congressional Management Fund, the GOP tremendous PAC devoted to successful the Home, have regarded to tie Shah to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) over the doctor’s earlier assist of Medicare for All. They’ve additionally portrayed him as being tender on border safety and being for elevating taxes, the highest points within the district.
Throughout Shah’s look at a discussion board hosted final week by the Residents Clear Elections Fee, he mentioned he would “secure the border” however didn’t specify if he absolutely helps Proposition 314, a measure that might be on the poll in November that might criminalize unauthorized border crossings by migrants and permit state and native authorities to arrest them. Schweikert declined to look on this system.
Shah mentioned he was “still looking” on the proposition, later including that there are “some constructive elements” in it.
“When talking to Democrats, Republicans and independents, it’s clear that securing the border is a top priority,” Shah mentioned in a press release to The Hill. “That’s why I was proud to vote for over $200 million in border security funding in the 2023 budget. As an emergency room physician, I see the dangerous impact fentanyl is having in our communities.”
Shah was recognized for reaching throughout the aisle whereas serving within the state legislature. He has touted his bipartisan file on the marketing campaign path whereas additionally specializing in abortion, a difficulty that would drive turnout within the state with Proposition 139 on the poll in November. Republicans throughout the nation have struggled with the problem following the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022.
“I think abortion is where he’s probably strongest against David, because David has always been kind of…pretty strong on the pro-life issue in general,” mentioned Arizona-based non-partisan pollster Mike Noble.
The physician’s marketing campaign and outdoors teams backing his bid have gone after Schweikert’s stance on abortion. They’ve additionally warned that Schweikert would assist reducing Medicare and Social Safety, one thing his marketing campaign has denied. The GOP lawmaker, a fiscal hawk, sits on the highly effective Methods and Means Committee and, for years, has centered on reducing down the federal deficit.
Nonetheless, some Republicans are uncertain abortion might be sufficient to tip the scales in Shah’s favor.
“The impact of the abortion topic, with the addition of it being its own proposition on the ballot, does not impact David Schweikert as negatively as his Democratic opponent hopes it does,” Barnes argued. “I think the abortion politics is already baked to the voter performance. People who scored abortion rights or who are pro-life already vote accordingly if that is their issue.”
One other wild card is the impression the Senate contest might have on down-ballot races. Polls presently present Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego main his divisive GOP rival, Kari Lake, by vital margins.
Noble, the nonpartisan pollster, mentioned Lake’s presence on the poll “doesn’t help” Schweikert, whereas noting that the incumbent has survived equally powerful environments earlier than, thanks partly to voters within the state keen to separate their tickets.
Others are much less sure the Senate contest will have an effect on the Home race.
“I think Kari Lake exists in her own political silo, and that does not bleed over to the federal races in the U.S. House of Representatives in that district,” Barnes mentioned.
Shah for his half has been raking in spectacular quantities of cash in current months. Within the third quarter, he raised $3.45 million, his marketing campaign advised The Hill. By comparability, Schweikert’s guide Chris Baker advised The Hill that the marketing campaign committee has amassed simply over $858,000 within the third quarter.
Each campaigns have gotten assist from occasion leaders. Jeffries fundraised for Shah earlier this month. And Home Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) fundraised for Schweikert whereas passing by Arizona in August, in line with a supply aware of the matter. The supply added Johnson is anticipated again in Arizona within the final week of October to spice up Schweikert and different candidates within the state.
The spending on the airwaves within the race has additionally heated up.
For the reason that Democratic major concluded, Shah’s marketing campaign has spent over $2.1 million on tv, whereas Schweikert’s marketing campaign spent slightly below $660,000, in line with an evaluation from ad-tracking agency Medium Shopping for that was shared with The Hill. The DCCC spent over $2.3 million, in line with the evaluation.
“Congressman Schweikert has been involved in competitive races now for multiple cycles,” Baker mentioned. “We expect this race to be no different, but at the same time, we feel very good about where we are right now.”
Observers chalk up Schweikert’s energy at the least partly to his political instincts. The incumbent obtained Trump’s endorsement in 2022 however his working with out the previous president’s backing this cycle.
“Davis Schweikert gets along very well with the McCain constituency in Arizona, and he gets along very well with the more conservative constituency in Arizona,” mentioned Barnes, the previous state senator. “So I think you add all that together and he’ll be reelected.”
