Former Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola (D-Alaska) is reportedly contemplating a run for Alaska governor, stoking Democratic hopes that she might clinch one other upset victory within the pink state.
Peltola turned the primary Democrat to win the state’s lone Home seat in 50 years when she received her race in 2022 earlier than narrowly dropping reelection in 2024 as Alaska went for President Trump. This made her probably the most profitable statewide Democratic candidate in years.
Now, Democrats are hopeful she might pull off one other win in 2026, in a state the place a registered Democrat hasn’t held the governor’s mansion since 2002.
“I can’t think of a Democrat who is better positioned than her, and I think she would stand a very strong chance,” mentioned Alaska strategist John-Henry Heckendorn.
Peltola was comparatively little identified nationally when she pulled off a win within the particular Home election to fill the rest of the late Rep. Don Younger’s (R) time period after Younger died in 2022. She prevailed within the race after her two major Republican opponents, former Gov. Sarah Palin and Nick Begich, centered on attacking one another, serving to her develop into the primary Democrat to win statewide workplace in Alaska since 2008.
She then received once more in opposition to Palin and Begich in that November’s common election to be elected to a full time period.
Being a Trump-district Democrat, Peltola was one of many high targets for Republicans to select off in 2024, and in a presidential election 12 months during which Alaska nearly will surely vote for Trump, the GOP appeared to be the favorites.
Republicans additionally consolidated their help behind one candidate, Begich, forward of the overall election and averted attacking one another to keep away from splitting the vote within the first spherical of the state’s ranked-choice voting system.
Regardless of the chances being in opposition to her, Peltola nonetheless almost pulled off a win. She was simply 2 factors behind Begich within the first spherical of voting and in the end misplaced by solely 2.5 factors within the last spherical.
That was a big overperformance in comparison with how former Vice President Harris (D) fared, dropping the state by 13 factors.
“Peltola’s putting up one of the top five performances in the [election] for a Democrat anywhere in the country. By that metric, she’s probably one of the most talented Democratic candidates in the U.S.” Heckendorn mentioned, evaluating her to former Montana Sen. Jon Tester, one other red-state Democrat.
Her profile and previous success would give Democrats a lift in any future workplace she seeks. And a gubernatorial run could also be in her sights.
After her loss, Peltola was noncommittal about her future in an interview with Alaska Public Media, saying she was trying ahead to returning to personal life. The regulation agency Holland & Hart introduced Monday that Peltola was becoming a member of as senior director of Alaska affairs.
The Hill has reached out to Peltola for remark.
Sources advised Cook dinner Political Report final month that Peltola’s outdated Home seat would develop into a high goal for Democrats if she runs in a rematch in opposition to Begich, however operating for governor could also be extra probably. Cook dinner reported the sector for the Home seat is “frozen” till Peltola decides.
She might additionally plan to problem Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in 2026.
Ivan Moore, the founding father of the polling agency Alaska Survey Analysis, mentioned he carried out a ballot a couple of 12 months in the past exploring a hypothetical match-up between Peltola and Sullivan, which discovered Peltola seen extra favorably than the incumbent senator.
“It’s hypothetical, but this was at the height of Mary … in office, and she was still halfway [in the] honeymoon,” he mentioned.
However regardless of Peltola’s benefit in favorability, Sullivan nonetheless led by 3 factors, he mentioned.
“The nature of Alaska is that if you’ve got two candidates, one a Democrat and one a Republican, and both of them have basically identical name ID and identical popularity, the Republican will win by 10 points,” Moore mentioned. “So it’s one thing to have good numbers, but if you’re running as a Democrat, it’s a problem.”
However he mentioned operating for governor could be a unique matter as a result of will probably be an open seat with Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) term-limited. And he mentioned the sector, no less than at the moment, is “pretty thin.”
“She would walk into the race with a huge advantage in name ID,” he mentioned. “I mean literally hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of name ID. She’s a household name, and there aren’t really any household names out there. People are getting up there, but they’re still a ways short.”
On the Republican aspect, state Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom is taken into account a possible candidate to succeed Dunleavy, however she’s coming off an unsuccessful Home bid final 12 months for the seat Begich received, and analysts mentioned she’s not as nicely referred to as Peltola.
Democratic strategist Amber Lee mentioned she hopes Peltola runs for governor as a result of she believes Peltola would finest be capable to “protect” the state from what is going on on the federal stage in that function. Lee famous Alaska is very reliant on federal funding for jobs and Medicaid, which covers nearly 250,000 Alaskans.
Congressional Republicans are at the moment working to make large cuts to authorities spending. Whereas Trump and the GOP have vowed Medicaid wouldn’t be reduce, critics have argued the extent of the cuts could be robust to attain with out slicing applications like that.
“At this point, it looks like where we’re really able to stand up for each other is more at the local level, and I think that she could protect Alaska from some of the things that’s happening if she were here as governor,” Lee mentioned.
Heckendorn mentioned the voters may be higher for Democrats in 2026 amid anticipated backlash to Trump, commonplace for the sitting president, giving her “tailwinds” to propel her ahead. Even with headwinds final 12 months, she nearly received, he famous.
He mentioned Peltola’s power has been demonstrating an “authenticity” that voters really feel they’ll belief personally. Peltola has usually spoken about her background working within the fishing and mining industries, coming from rural Alaska and rising up with weapons.
Peltola was the primary Alaska Native to serve in Congress.
“Mary doesn’t have to fake anything,” Heckendorn mentioned. “I think she’s seen as an authentic person, an authentic Alaskan. I think that strength is going to apply in any of those races.”
