The nonpartisan election handicapper Prepare dinner Political Report is ranking 10 Democratic-held seats and eight seats held by Republicans as toss-ups forward of the 2026 election.
The ten Democratic seats are represented by Reps. Adam Grey (Calif.), Derek Tran (Calif.), Jared Golden (Maine), Gabe Vasquez (N.M.), Laura Gillen (N.Y.), Don Davis (N.C.), Marcy Kaptur (Ohio), Emilia Sykes (Ohio), Vicente Gonzalez (Texas) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.).
The seats the Prepare dinner Political Report sees as most weak for Republicans are these represented by Reps. David Schweikert (Ariz.), Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.), Gabe Evans (Colo.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa), Tom Barrett (Mich.), Don Bacon (Neb.), Ryan Mackenzie (Pa.) and Scott Perry (Pa.).
“Though their majority is dangerously thin, in some ways, Republicans are starting out in a stronger position than they were in 2018. Trump’s latest victory was broad; he clawed back ground in suburbs that had lurched to the left since 2016 and made massive inroads in urban areas,” Prepare dinner Political Report’s Erin Covey and Matthew Klein wrote.
“Almost all of the most competitive House districts moved to the right between 2020 and 2024 (Washington’s 3rd District was the lone exception),” they added.
The duo famous that there have been vibrant spots for each events. For Republicans, they may achieve as many three seats given the social gathering can have energy over the redistricting course of in Ohio. In the meantime, extra Democrats outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris in November in comparison with the variety of Republicans who outperformed President Trump in aggressive Home races.
The Nationwide Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) touted the handicapper’s evaluation in a press release, with spokesperson Mike Marinella saying, “The maths is in our favor, and it is clear Home Republicans are on offense for 2026.”
“House Democrats are in shambles — they don’t have a clear message and they’re incapable of selling voters on their failed agenda. We will work tirelessly to hold the Democrat Party accountable and grow our Republican majority,” he added.
However with a slim majority within the Home, Democrats solely have to internet three seats so as to flip the chamber. The social gathering will seemingly additionally profit from the standard headwinds the social gathering in energy faces throughout midterm cycles, elections which can be traditionally seen as a test on the social gathering within the White Home.
