Home Republicans are charging into Election Day with excessive hopes of padding their majority within the subsequent Congress.
The struggle to manage the decrease chamber stays too near name within the ultimate dash to Nov. 5 — and marketing campaign operatives in each events acknowledge the Eleventh-hour uncertainty.
Republicans obtained a small enhance from state redistricting, which is predicted to internet them one extra Home seat subsequent yr. And so they’re additionally inspired by a map the place 5 of probably the most susceptible incumbent Democrats symbolize districts carried by former President Trump in 2020. Trump misplaced that contest, however with him again on the prime of the poll — and making positive aspects amongst Black, Hispanic and male voters — Republicans really feel assured they’ll have higher luck seizing these seats this time round.
The additional cushion could be a welcome improvement for GOP leaders who’ve struggled, with a razor skinny majority, to unite the warring factions of their convention with the intention to move even probably the most primary laws.
Listed here are seven Democratic districts the place Republicans suppose they’ve the perfect shot at gaining floor on Nov. 5.
Ohio’s ninth District: Marcy Kaptur
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), in her forty second yr within the Home, is an establishment on Capitol Hill and the longest-serving lady in congressional historical past. Republicans see a singular alternative to finish that streak this yr.
Not solely did Trump carry the district by 2.9 factors in 2020, however GOP legislatures made the district barely extra crimson within the redistricting course of that was authorized final yr. On prime of that, Trump’s working mate this time round is JD Vance, Ohio’s junior senator.
That mixture, based on GOP strategists, ought to lend a lift to Kaptur’s challenger, Ohio state Rep. Derek Merrin, 38, who’s working on a message centered closely on the economic system underneath President Biden.
“It is a toss-up race; it is neck-and-neck. And Trump — he’s obviously going to help us there. It’s a Trump district, and he’s probably going to win it by a larger margin [this year],” a Home GOP strategist mentioned. “Vance being on the ticket helps us, as well.”
They’ve an uphill climb.
Election forecasters at each the Prepare dinner Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball say the race “leans” in Kaptur’s favor.
Kaptur has outpaced Merrin in fundraising, bringing in $1.3 million within the third quarter of 2024 to $610,336 for Merrin. And Kaptur entered October with a a lot bigger battle chest of $1.7 million to simply $430,937 for Merrin.
Exterior PAC spending within the race, although, has favored Merrin. In accordance to OpenSecrets, $7.2 million has been spent both to help Merrin or oppose Kaptur, in comparison with $6.2 million supporting Kaptur or opposing Merrin. That features $3.9 million in spending from the Congressional Management Fund, the tremendous PAC aligned with Home GOP management. Elon Musk’s America PAC can be spending within the race.
Pennsylvania’s eighth District: Matt Cartwright
When Vice President Harris changed Biden on the prime of the ticket in July, it gave a lift to down-ballot Democrats in a overwhelming majority of districts across the nation. Pennsylvania’s eighth is likely to be one of many exceptions.
The area consists of Scranton, Biden’s hometown, and Republicans are hoping the shift to Harris will probably be a drag on Rep. Matt Cartwright, the six-term Democrat who’s combating for his political life in a district Trump received by 2.9 factors 4 years in the past.
“It’s incredibly beneficial that Joe Biden isn’t on the ballot there,” the GOP strategist mentioned.
Difficult Cartwright is Republican Rob Bresnahan, an area businessman who’s centered on cost-of-living and border safety considerations within the blue-collar district.
“We’ve had some trouble in the past because our candidates in that district were kind of labeled as Washington — and in a lot of ways they were. But he’s somebody who was born in the district,” the strategist mentioned. “He has, not only some dirt under his fingernails, but the local ties that we think really helps us.”
Cartwright has the clear money benefit, elevating $2.17 million within the third quarter and getting into October with $1.9 million in his battle chest. Bresnahan raised $1.16 million in the identical span and entered October with simply $464,034.
Nonetheless, exterior spending has helped Republicans shut the hole. The Congressional Management Fund has poured practically $5 million into the race on behalf of Bresnahan, versus nearly $4 million for Cartwright from the Home Majority PAC, which is related to Democratic management.
Maine’s 2nd District: Jared Golden
Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) is well-known for his impartial streak, voting in opposition to his occasion on high-profile points like vitality coverage, pupil mortgage forgiveness and police reform throughout his six years on Capitol Hill. That’s accomplished nothing to satiate the need of Republicans to make him a major goal.
Trump received the district by 6.1 factors in 2020, and GOP operatives suppose challenger Austin Theriault, a 30-year-old state consultant and former NASCAR driver, will converse to voters in one of the crucial rural — and most white — districts within the nation.
They’re pointing to a late infusion of money from the Home Majority PAC as proof Democrats are on the ropes. And a brand new inside ballot from the Home Republicans’ marketing campaign arm has fueled their optimism. The survey discovered Theriault up two factors, whereas Golden’s help amongst impartial voters has fallen from 54 p.c to 36 p.c because the begin of October.
“Independents are cratering for him,” the GOP strategist mentioned.
Golden, a retired Marine who served in each Iraq and Afghanistan, is accustomed to surviving powerful challenges. He raised $1.8 million within the third quarter, getting into October with $1.6 million in money available, nearly double the figures posted by Theriault.
However exterior spending has favored Theriault, as teams have poured tens of millions of {dollars} into the race — $9.4 million for the GOP challenger, versus $6.4 million for the Democratic incumbent — making the competition one of the crucial costly within the nation.
Alaska At-large: Mary Peltola
Alaska is Trump nation: the previous president ran away with the state in 2020, besting Biden by greater than 10 factors. And Republicans are betting his return to the highest of the ticket will probably be sufficient to oust Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) and win again a seat that GOP Rep. Don Younger held for nearly 50 years.
Alaska is among the many few states within the nation with a ranked-choice election system. That, based on Republican marketing campaign operatives, will solely assist their candidate, Nick Begich, the scion of a Democratic political household who’s crossed the aisle and received Trump’s endorsement.
Begich misplaced to Peltola in 2022, however Republicans say their inside polls forecast a special final result this time round.
“We’re getting over 47 percent on that first ballot. … And on the second ballot, Begich gets over 50 percent. So we’re in a great spot there,” mentioned the GOP strategist. “It’s a Trump +10 state, and this is actually a situation where ranked-choice voting is working in our favor.”
Peltola, the primary native Alaskan in congressional historical past, is conscious of the problem, searching for to distance herself from her occasion and construct a model as a bipartisan bridgemaker. She has bucked Democratic brass on key votes, tapped Younger’s former chief of employees to move her workplace and declined to endorse Harris within the presidential contest.
Peltola has vastly outraised Begich, hauling in $3.9 million within the third quarter alone, versus $853,000 for her GOP challenger. However as in different battleground races, exterior spending has blunted the Democrats’ benefit, with teams pouring $10.3 million on behalf of Peltola and $10.1 million in favor of Begich.
Washington’s third District: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Republicans have been stung in 2022, when Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) defied the polls to defeat Republican Joe Kent in southwestern Washington, the place Trump had received by greater than 4 factors in 2020. This yr, Kent is again with Trump on the poll.
The third District abuts Oregon close to Portland, a bastion of liberal politics that’s turn into a supply of nationwide controversy for its lenient positions on regulation enforcement and immigration — points that churned nationwide headlines through the COVID-19 pandemic. And Republicans are combating to tie these controversies to any Democrats working within the area, together with Gluesenkamp Perez.
“Everybody who lives there, they work in Portland, and it’s a referendum on Portland policies,” the Republican strategist mentioned. “So you’re talking [about] crime and drugs, and a lot of that fits into the illegal immigration message. … Because the people who live across the river, they live across the river for a reason. And they don’t want that coming across.”
Branding Gluesenkamp Perez as a liberal “elitist,” nonetheless, received’t be straightforward. The primary-term lawmaker is a former auto mechanic with deep blue-collar roots within the district. She co-chairs the centrist Blue Canine Coalition, and is a member of the bipartisan Drawback Solvers Caucus. She has declined to say she’ll vote for Harris for president.
Kent, a former member of the Military Particular Forces, has stirred controversy of his personal, selling conspiracy theories about Covid vaccines and false claims concerning the 2020 election being “stolen” from Trump. Nonetheless, he has received endorsements from the occasion brass, and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) visited the district for a fundraiser in August, when he portrayed the race as a must-win for Republicans.
Cash has poured into the race. Gluesenkamp Perez raised $3.6 million within the third quarter alone, and entered October with $1.3 million in money available. Kent raised 1 / 4 of that determine, $888,000, with $514,000 money available.
Exterior spending has additionally tilted towards the incumbent, with $7.9 million in exterior money favoring Gluesenkamp Perez, versus $4.7 million for Kent.
Colorado’s eighth District: Yadira Caraveo
If Republicans handle to defeat first-term Rep. Yadira Caraveo – Colorado’s first Latina member of Congress – they might attribute the success to voters’ considerations about crime and the way immigration straining native companies.
“The issues in this race all stem from the migrant crisis in Denver. I mean, they’ve had to slash city budgets …. That includes everything from fire, EMS, police to even school libraries. That is a very pertinent issue,” the GOP strategist mentioned, additionally mentioning drug and homelessness points within the metropolis. “This is obviously kind of the suburbs of it, but a lot of people commute to go to work there.”
The comparatively new district stretches from the northern suburbs of Denver to south of Fort Collins.
Biden had a 4.6 p.c edge amongst voters contained in the district traces by 4.6 in 2020, however Republicans noticed the 2022 election as an indicator of Caraveo’s vulnerability. Caraveo didn’t cross the 50 p.c mark in her slender victory, and a libertarian candidate on the poll obtained nearly 4 p.c of the vote. This yr, there is no such thing as a third occasion candidate on the poll.
The Republican nominee, state Rep. Gabe Evans, is a former Military blackhawk helicopter pilot and a former police officer.
Democrats have out-raised and out-spent Republicans within the district, based on Open Secrets and techniques. Democratic-aligned teams have spent greater than $12.2 million to both help Caraveo or oppose Evans, whereas Republican exterior spending has reached nearly $9.8 million to help Evans or oppose Caraveo. Democrats have closely attacked Evans on abortion rights.
Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), head of the Democrats’ marketing campaign arm, acknowledged that Caraveo’s district is one which has been closely focused by Republicans.
“But we are invested, we have a great candidate, she’s doing a great job,” DelBene mentioned earlier within the month. “Once we get our message out, we win.”
Pennsylvania’s seventh District: Susan Wild
Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) got here to Congress as a part of the “blue wave” in 2018, and Republicans hope that state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie – a Harvard Enterprise Faculty graduate – can obtain their aim of reclaiming the suburban seat exterior Philadelphia that Biden barely received in 2020 by 0.6 p.c, based on the Day by day Kos.
“Wild’s obviously an entrenched incumbent [and] she’s had a massive fundraising advantage. But this is the type of race where we see it neck-and-neck in the polls right now,” the GOP strategist mentioned of the race.
The cash is definitely on Wild’s aspect. She vastly out-raised her challenger within the third quarter of this yr, bringing in $2.6 million to $586,836 for Mackenzie.
Exterior spending is pouring in on Wild’s aspect, too, with PACs spending $12.1 million to help Wild or oppose Makenzie, versus $7.6 million to oppose Wild or help her challenger.
One current advert attacking Wild from Congressional Management Fund places the deal with immigration and border points, highlighting her vote in opposition to the Home GOP’s border invoice. Democrats, in the meantime, have hit Mackenzie on his report on reproductive rights.
With Pennsylvania being one of the crucial vital swing states within the presidential election, the result on the prime of the ticket will probably be a significant factor within the race.
“A top-of-the-ticket headwind for Kamala could really doom Wild, and Trump could push our guy, Brian MaKenzie over the edge,” the GOP strategist mentioned.
