Sen. Rick Scott (R) faces a significant take a look at within the dwelling stretch of his race for re-election, as Florida’s constitutional modification on abortion places the problem entrance and heart in what seems to be an more and more shut race in opposition to former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who has been slamming him over his unabashedly anti-abortion place.
As Republicans scramble, stumble and largely keep away from publicly saying how they are going to vote on poll measures to guard abortion entry, Scott has been clear that he’ll vote in opposition to Florida’s, setting him up as an outlier amongst GOP Senate candidates.
Scott has repeatedly mentioned the modification is simply too excessive, claiming it could permit abortion “up until the moment of birth.”
In states like Montana, Nevada and Arizona — all of which could have abortion amendments on the poll — Republican candidates have largely prevented publicly stating how they’ll vote, underlining how the celebration views abortion as a legal responsibility.
Christian Ulvert, a Florida-based Democratic strategist, mentioned he was stunned at Scott’s open opposition, given how standard Modification 4 is polling.
“It’s 100% overconfidence,” Ulvert mentioned. “I think the miscalculation on their campaign’s part is, look at what’s happened in other parts of the country, even in more conservative areas like Kansas and Kentucky, even Ohio, on this issue. So, they are discounting how much support there is, even among moderate Republicans.”
Nonetheless, Brett Doster, a Florida GOP marketing campaign strategist, mentioned Scott ought to get a lift for sticking to his ideas.
“This is an issue where, well, you just don’t get a lot of points for gamesmanship,” Doster mentioned.
“If you don’t have a sense of conviction about these issues and a sense of confidence about your own leadership, then it is easy to get tied into knots on these things … what you have to do is just go out and advocate for your position.”
Greater than two years after the Supreme Courtroom overturned Roe v. Wade, Republicans nonetheless have a tough time navigating the problem of abortion. However the GOP is assured about taking management of the Senate, and candidates are hoping the Democratic benefit on abortion isn’t sufficient to value them shut races.
Scott is favored to win re-election, however a ballot earlier this month confirmed Mucarsel-Powell behind by only one level, making the race a statistical useless warmth. The Hill and DDHQ give Scott a 67 % probability of successful the race.
Scott has a historical past of successful tight races, and Florida voters have just lately been passing progressive poll measures whereas electing conservative Republicans. In recent times, Floridians handed amendments permitting restoration of voting rights for felons, an elevated minimal wage, and legalized medicinal marijuana.
Floridians in November will vote on Modification 4, which might prohibit the state from limiting abortion entry as much as fetal viability, which is round 24 weeks of being pregnant.
Polls present the modification may have sufficient help to get the 60 % help wanted to move. However that threshold means Republican help is important.
Florida presently bans abortion after fetal cardiac exercise is detected, which is round six weeks, earlier than most individuals know they’re pregnant. There are restricted exceptions, and anybody who performs an unlawful abortion may very well be charged with a felony.
Like many different Republicans, Scott has waffled considerably on his abortion stance. He backed the six-week ban when it was first handed by the state legislature final 12 months, saying if he had been nonetheless governor, he would signal the invoice. However then in April, simply weeks earlier than the six-week ban took impact, Scott mentioned he’d help changing the six-week ban with one which bans abortion at 15 weeks, with exceptions for circumstances of rape, incest and to guard the lifetime of the mom.
Marketing campaign spokesman Will Hampson mentioned Scott has been “transparent” about the place he stands on the problems.
“Senator Scott has been clear that he is going to vote no on Amendment 4 but has encouraged all Florida voters to make their voices heard in November,” Hampson mentioned in a press release to The Hill. “Senator Scott believes the consensus in Florida is around 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother.”
If the abortion modification is defeated, Florida’s six-week ban will stay in place.
Florida Republicans have seen main victories since 2020 which have helped push the state additional to the precise. Even in 2022 when Democrats throughout the nation efficiently campaigned on tying their Republican opponents to the tip of Roe v. Wade, Florida Republicans noticed sweeping double-digit victories.
However with abortion entry straight on the poll this 12 months, the calculus may change.
Mucarsel-Powell has been attacking Scott on abortion since she received the Democratic main in August.
“We have this opportunity to vote for Amendment 4 … but it’s not going to mean anything if Rick Scott gets his way, gets reelected and then pushes for a national abortion ban,” Mucarsel-Powell mentioned in an MSNBC interview this week.
In her first common election advert, Mucarsel-Powell described Scott’s abortion place as taking away the freedoms she and her household sought after they immigrated from Ecuador.
Lauren Chou, communications director for Mucarsel-Powell’s marketing campaign, mentioned having an abortion modification on the poll offers the marketing campaign a possibility to point out voters the real-life stakes of Scott’s place.
“Individuals right here in Florida actually hate the federal government telling them what they will and may’t do, and this abortion ban that Rick Scott mentioned that he would signal if he was governor, is the federal government attempting to inform Floridians what to do,” Chou mentioned.
Republican strategists, however, mentioned that Scott has title recognition and a transparent document as a senator and governor, in contrast to Senate candidates in different states.
“He’s got a little bit more protection, because he’s the name they know. He’s been the governor twice. He’s got a lot more cachet with the voters in Florida than a lot of the other folks,” mentioned Ford O’Connell, a Florida-based GOP strategist.
However that’s precisely what makes Scott weak this cycle, Chou mentioned. He’s operating on his document, and it hasn’t actually modified, significantly on abortion.
“No other Republican that’s running statewide in Florida this cycle has as clear of a tie to that ban as Rick Scott does, and that’s something that our campaign certainly has made a focus out of, and we’re making sure that Floridians everywhere know that this abortion ban is because of people like Rick Scott.”
