Home Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) heads to the Home ground on Friday in hopes of being formally reelected Speaker.
Whereas Johnson has the endorsement of President-elect Trump to stay Speaker, one Republican is pledging to oppose him, and several other others are usually not committing to supporting Johnson. That has raised questions on whether or not he can win sufficient votes to maintain his gavel, given the Home GOP’s razor-thin majority.
Briefly, Johnson can solely afford to lose one Republican vote for Speaker — assuming each member is current and voting for a candidate. However the particulars can get difficult.
The Speaker election is the primary order of enterprise for the Home on the opening day of the brand new Congress, which is on Jan. 3 at midday, as dictated by the Structure.
By observe, the Home can conduct no enterprise till it elects a Speaker, that means the chamber will probably be paralyzed till it does so. That state of affairs was final seen in the beginning of the 118th Congress in January 2023, when it took former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) 15 ballots over 4 days to clinch the gavel.
This is how the mathematics breaks down:
The Speaker is elected by a majority — not a plurality — of Home members voting for a candidate by identify.
On the primary day of the brand new Congress on Friday, there are anticipated to be 219 Republicans, 215 Democrats, and one emptiness provided that former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) says he won’t return to take his seat, placing the entire variety of members at 434.
Since a majority of 434 is 218, meaning Johnson wants 218 votes with a purpose to win the Speakership, assuming each member is current and voting for a candidate.
Democrats sign they’ll all vote for Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). In Speaker battles final 12 months, Democrats by no means noticed any defections.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) says he’ll vote for somebody aside from Johnson, angered by his dealing with of spending points, Ukraine support and different issues. If each different Republican votes for Johnson, he can nonetheless win the Speakership. In that state of affairs, the entire can be 218 Johnson, 215 Jeffries and one vote for one more candidate, nonetheless delivering Johnson a majority of the votes.
But when one different Republican joins Massie in voting for somebody aside from Johnson, he doesn’t get the gavel. In that state of affairs — 217 Johnson, 215 Jeffries, two different — nobody can be elected Speaker since nobody would have a majority of votes, and the Home would vote once more.
The mathematics will get extra difficult if a member is absent or votes “present,” for the reason that Speaker must be elected by solely a majority of these voting for a candidate.
Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), a Republican who has additionally not dedicated to supporting Johnson regardless of Trump’s endorsement, voted “present” throughout a number of Speaker rounds earlier than McCarthy was elected.
In a state of affairs the place Massie votes for one more candidate and Spartz votes “present,” Johnson can nonetheless win. The breakdown can be 217 Johnson, 215 Jeffries, one vote for one more candidate and one current, handing Johnson the gavel as a result of he received a majority of the 433 votes for Speaker.
However a state of affairs the place Massie votes for a candidate aside from Johnson and two members vote “present” might tank Johnson on that Speakership vote. If the vote is 216 Johnson, 215 Jeffries, one vote for one more candidate and two current, Johnson loses as a result of 216 is just not a majority of the 432 votes forged for Speaker.
Any absences on both the Republican or Democratic facet might additionally change the variety of GOP defections Johnson can afford, decreasing the brink wanted to win.
