Former President Trump cemented Florida’s standing as a deep-red state on Tuesday, flipping a number of counties up and down the state.
Miami-Dade County noticed a Republican win on the presidential stage for the primary time in 36 years, whereas the better Tampa space additionally went purple. Trump additionally flipped Jacksonville’s Duval County and enormous swaths of blue-leaning Central Florida.
Trump carried the state by 13 factors on Tuesday, dramatically enhancing on his roughly 3-point margin in 2020 and his 1-point margin in 2016.
Whereas Florida has been on a GOP trajectory for practically ten years, Trump’s victory and Vice President Harris’s underperformance underscores the diploma to which he has tightened his political maintain on the state and can be emblematic of the previous president’s over-performance on election night time.
“I looked at Duval and I said Duval is a microcosm of Georgia,” stated Florida Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “He wins this by five, he’s going to win Georgia for sure.”
The financial system and immigration reigned supreme for voters’ prime points in Florida, like in a lot of the nation. In response to the AP VoteCast, 41 % of voters stated the financial system was their most essential situation, adopted by immigration at 23 % and abortion at 9 %.
“Now we have Trump crushing it by 13 points. Part of that is kind of an affirmation of [Trump’s] agenda on issues like immigration, economy and inflation,” stated Justin Sayfie, a Florida-based Republican strategist.
Different Republicans have attributed the elevated success within the state, partially, to a conservative populist message on points like immigration and the financial system.
“What Trump helped add to the conversation is he helped a lot of Florida politicians speak populist conservatism. I mean, that’s how you win Miami Dade,” O’Connell stated.
The messaging performed nicely with the state’s Latino inhabitants, notably in South Florida’s Miami Dade County and Central Florida’s Osceola County. Trump notably flipped Osceola County, which was carried by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Biden by double digits, by simply over one level. Miami Dade is dwelling to a big Cuban American inhabitants, whereas Osceola County is dwelling to a large Puerto Rican inhabitants,
Sayfie and different Florida Republicans argue that Tuesday night time’s outcomes have been the end result of various elements, like over 10 years of inhabitants development within the state, Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) broadly praised dealing with of the coronavirus pandemic and a strengthened GOP infrastructure. Trump notably made Florida the middle of the Republican universe when he turned a resident of the state in 2020.
“This didn’t happen overnight,” O’Connell stated. “Mechanically it started with Rick Scott,” he continued, referring to Scott’s first gubernatorial victory in 2010.
“After that first one, the Florida Republican Party really started the voter registration drive,” O’Connell stated.
There are presently over a million extra registered Republicans than Democrats within the state.
Scott, who served two phrases as governor, gained reelection to the Senate on Tuesday, enhancing on his previous statewide margins of victory in Florida. The senator up to now had narrowly gained his election and reelection bids within the state, however defeated former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell (D-Fla.) by over 12 factors on Tuesday.
Chris Hartline, a senior adviser to the Scott marketing campaign, attributed a lot of the victory to Republicans’ voter registration benefit within the state.
“It’s really hard to compare Florida to what’s happening in other places in the country,” Hartline stated. “We won Hillsborough, we won Pinellas, we won Seminole, we performed better in Orange. Is that because of a failure of Harris with suburban voters or is it because we have more registered Republicans in the state than we used to?”
“And it’s hard to not completely ignore the tactical side of it, which is Florida Democrats do not have a functioning party,” he added.
Florida Democrats argued that there have been brilliant spots on Tuesday, together with a 25-percent improve in turnout from 2022, and the truth that a majority of voters favored laws that may have enshrined abortion rights within the state. The measure in the end failed as a result of it didn’t meet the 60-percent threshold.
“Over the next four years, Florida Democrats will continue to organize, mobilize and hold Republicans accountable — because our job is bigger than one election,” stated Florida Democratic Social gathering Chair Nikki Fried in an announcement following Tuesday’s election.
However like Democrats throughout the nation, the social gathering in Florida is grappling with what went improper nationally and inside their dwelling state.
“Democrats had a disaster at the top of the ticket, which I publicly stated at the beginning of the race,” stated John Morgan, a distinguished Central Florida-based legal professional and Democratic donor.
“Florida is officially Texas and Pennsylvania is officially Florida,” he continued.
Nevertheless there are Florida Republicans which are urging their colleagues to not get too snug within the state, warning that the identical situations that helped Republicans within the state may assist Democrats down the street.
“At this moment, Florida is a red state, but I don’t think the Republicans can get cocky and the reason is simple. You have a very transient population and things change and eventually the Democrats may get it together,” O’Connell stated.
“Parties are set up in our two-party system so they can reinvent themselves. That’s why you can’t get cocky.”
